Hike, Hold or Wait? Real Estate Experts on the October RBI Policy

RBI's October policy could reshape housing affordability and festive sales as property leaders weigh borrowing costs, buyer sentiment and investment outlooks.

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The RBI has held the repo rate at 5.25% for four straight reviews. When the Monetary Policy Committee meets from October 5 to 7, real estate will be watching to see if that run ends.
The mood has shifted since August. Retail inflation rose to 4.82% in August from 4.45% in July, and crude is hovering near $107 a barrel while the rupee has slipped past 96 to the dollar. Economists at Crisil, Nomura and HSBC expect a 25 bps hike, with Nomura pointing to October 7. Others, however, say the RBI may wait until December for more data. 

For homebuyers, the difference matters. Floating-rate EMIs usually rise with a lag when the repo rate goes up, and this comes just as the festive season begins, when developers see their strongest sales. We asked real estate experts what they expect from the policy and what it could mean for demand.


Mr. Ankur Jalan, CEO, Golden Growth Fund (GGF), 

"While inflationary pressures and currency volatility warrant close monitoring, a repo rate hike at this juncture could raise the cost of capital and may affect investment decisions across the real estate ecosystem. For AIFs, policy stability is important for investment planning, project financing and exit visibility. With institutional capital showing strong confidence in Indian real estate, a pause would help preserve this momentum. The RBI should ideally allow more time to assess the persistence of imported inflation before tightening monetary conditions."


Mr. Suresh H. A., Managing Director, Sanjeevini Group,

"While 25bps hike in repo rate looks likely, the RBI should consider maintaining a status quo in October MPC, as a hike could have a direct bearing on homebuyer sentiment and affordability. With property values having appreciated across key residential markets, even a marginal increase in home loan rates can influence purchase decisions, particularly among first-time and mid-income buyers. The festive quarter is traditionally an important period for residential sales, and stable interest rates would help sustain buyer confidence and encourage homeownership."


Mr. Lalit Parihar, Managing Director, Aaiji Group, a real estate firm,

"A repo rate hike could increase the overall cost of property acquisition and financing at a time when buyers are already evaluating affordability carefully. For emerging real estate destinations, where demand is closely linked to infrastructure development, long-term investment confidence and future growth prospects, policy stability is particularly important. The RBI should consider holding rates in October and assessing the inflation trajectory over the next quarter. A stable interest-rate environment would support festive-season buying, sustain momentum in residential and plotted developments, and allow the benefits of infrastructure-led growth to translate into actual property demand."


Vikas Garg, Joint Managing Director, Ganga Realty,

“The upcoming RBI policy review comes at an important time for the residential real estate sector, with the festive season also set to bring renewed activity among homebuyers. While borrowers will closely watch the movement of interest rates and its impact on home loan affordability, the underlying demand for quality housing remains healthy. Festive periods traditionally see greater buyer engagement, and this year, we expect the combination of improving consumer confidence, stable economic fundamentals and attractive offerings from developers to support housing demand. In markets such as Gurugram and the wider NCR, the aspiration for homeownership continues to remain strong, supported by infrastructure development, connectivity and employment opportunities. Irrespective of short-term rate movements, buyers are increasingly evaluating homes from a longer-term perspective. We remain positive about the housing market and expect the festive season to further strengthen momentum and encourage more end-users to take their home-buying decisions forward.”


HS Kandhari, Co-founder & Executive Director - Harmony Infra,

“The RBI’s upcoming policy will be closely watched by the real estate sector, as interest rates have a direct impact on home loan affordability and buyer sentiment. A stable interest-rate environment gives buyers greater confidence to plan their purchases, while any reduction in rates could provide an additional push to housing demand. At the same time, the market today is being supported by factors such as improving connectivity, infrastructure development and a growing preference for better-quality homes. This is especially relevant in the premium and second-home segments, where buyers are also looking at location, lifestyle and the long-term value of their investment.”


Raghunath Reddy Bhattagiri, Founder Triguna Projects,

"With the industry expecting a small hike in the repo rate, even a 25 bps rise may lift the cost of borrowing for some home buyers. Affordability will matter more now. But the market has held up through earlier hikes, helped by strong end-user demand and better connectivity around Bangalore. Buyers are choosing land they will actually use, not just hold. At Triguna, families come to us for open space and a community they can grow with. That need is much bigger than a small change in rates, and it is not going away."


Amit Porwal, Director Aranyakaa Farms,

"The industry is expecting a small hike in the repo rate, which may raise home loan EMIs a little. For farmland, the effect is limited, because many buyers pay from their own savings and see land as a long-term asset. What they look for is clear titles, managed farms and good upkeep of the land. Developers who deliver on these will not feel much pressure from a rate change. At Aranyakaa, we believe demand for managed farmland will stay strong, as people now want assets that are safe and easy to hold."


Ravi Prakash Pandey, Founder and Chairman, Amrawati Group, 

“A stable interest rate regime is vital for maintaining the impetus of the Indian real estate industry. Any easing of the interest rates, on a measured scale, would be beneficial for buying homes and investing in addition to making developers continue with their expansion programs. Nevertheless, macroeconomic stability is also imperative for sustainable growth."

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